Taking place at the most historic venue in New York, the UFC will make its long awaited ESPN debut at the famed Barclays Center…
Although this card is being headlined by a superfight between the two champions in their respective weight classes, I won’t be betting on that fight at all. There is just simply too much of an unknown with TJ Dillashaw dropping down an entire weight class and making the biggest cut of his career to risk any type of money on it. Also, the line on TJ has jumped up to -230 after opening around -185, so your chance to get any value on him is gone. Lucky for you though, there are 12 other fights to pick from.
Gregor Gillespie vs Yancy Medeiros:
Gregor Gillespie is one of the most talented prospects in the lightweight division and has been on a tear since entering the UFC compiling a record of 5-0. Yancy is no slouch himself with an overall record of 15-5 and quality wins over some dangerous fighters. After a recent run at welterweight(170), Medeiros has decided to recommit himself and drop back down to lightweight(155).
Despite the slight size advantage Medeiros will have, he will still come in as a +375 dog. On the flip side Gillespie is favored at -550 and although I like Gillespie to win, I clearly wouldn’t tell you to bet someone at those odds.
What I’m really intrigued by is Gillespies ITD line at -160. Out of his 5 fights in the UFC, Gillespie has been to decision only one time. As for Medeiros, he’s only been to decision two times out of 10 UFC fights. For me, this fight looks like a showcase fight for Gillespie. He has all the tools to finish Medeiros and i fully expect him to whether it’s by submission or TKO. Gillespie averages 7.01 takedowns per fight, which is an absolutely outrageous number. UFC average is somewhere around 1.5-2, so it shows just how elite he is in the takedown and grappling department. It’s not a matter of if he gets Medeiros down, it’s a matter of when. As if that’s not enough, Medeiros has some of the worst defense in the UFC, absorbing 6.16 significant strikes per minute.
Tip: Gillespie -160 ITD
Some other fights I’m interested in are Glover Teixiera vs Karl Roberson and Geoff Neal vs Belal Muhammad.
Roberson is coming in on short notice after Teixiera’s original opponent withdrew with an injury. Roberson is also coming up a weight class, from middleweight to Light heavyweight. Age is creeping in on Glover but I still think he has some fights left him. The line is just too close for me to not take Glover in this spot. Vegas essentially has this fight as a pick em with Glover -120 against an opponent who is coming in on short notice and moving up a weight class. Wouldn’t surprise me if Glover looked for the takedown early and maybe even sneaks his way into a submission.
Tip: Glover Teixiera -120
Last time Geoff Neal fought, he had one of the nastiest headkick KOs I’ve ever seen. I mean completely starched the other dude. Sounded like a fucking gunshot went off. If you haven’t seen it, look up Geoff Neal vs Frank Camacho. Anyways, I like him in this spot to get another finish. His ITD line is +140. I think Vegas is a little off on this one. Neal has some of the fastest hands in the UFC, if not the fastest. Muhammad has only been stopped once in his UFC career but that was also against his only dangerous opponent that he’s faced. I think Neal will pick him apart early and eventually the get the finish.
Tip: Neal ITD +140