There’s not much too pick from today’s slate of soccer games. But this EPL game features a couple of Top 3 teams battling it out.
While they met earlier in the season for a matchup that ended up super passive and lacked scoring, this game has the signs to be different. Liverpool has scratched and clawed their way to remain undefeated the entire season at a 17-3-0 win-draw-loss record, unbelievably impressive and certainly earning the #1 spot in the League right now by 6 points.
Manchester City isn’t too shabby themselves having grabbed the #3 spot right now at 47 points total, 7 behind Liverpool.
The only time these two teams have played this season, the result was a 0-0 game. With only 13 shots combined and only 4 total being on target, City missed the opportunity knock in a penalty in the 86th minute to secure a win and give Liverpool their only loss.
But what intrigues me is the fact that City has been money at scoring at least 2 goals when it comes to playing at home at a rate of 10/10 (100%). Here are the numbers in those home games:
City scores at least 2 goals at home: 10/10, 100%
BTTS(Both Teams To Score): 7/10, 70%
Over 2.5: 9/10, 90%
Over 2.5/BTTS: 7/10, 70%
Clearly while Man City is at home, goals are the name of the game. And when numbers are hitting in the 70%+ in certain categories, it’s hard to ignore. It’s also difficult to look past the fact that Liverpool is 10/10 (100%) at scoring in all of their away games this season. The only thing that is concerning is how well Liverpool’s defense has been this year away, hitting BTTS only 4/10 (40%) while on the road. Give it to them, they’ve only given up 8 goals in 20 games so far, never allowed more than a goal. But this may be the game that this trend ends considering how well City scores at home.
This game probably ends in a tie. Whether it be another passive 0-0 game or a 2-2 goal fest, I think it’s one or the other. Although Liverpool has controlled pretty much every game this season, City shines at home and this is their time to strike if they plain to knock into Liverpool’s lead in the standings. Man City scoring at least 2 goals at home 10 out of 10 times so far is just too difficult to ignore. Never fuck with a hot streak, folks. I think we ride both coat tails of these teams strengths in these positions and expect goals.
Man City o1.5 goals: -125
BTTS & o2.5 goals: -120**
o3 goals: +110
2-2 score: +1100
(Single what bets you like)